British paradox: falling numbers despite openings

Christiane Fux studied journalism and psychology in Hamburg. The experienced medical editor has been writing magazine articles, news and factual texts on all conceivable health topics since 2001. In addition to her work for, Christiane Fux is also active in prose. Her first crime novel was published in 2012, and she also writes, designs and publishes her own crime plays.

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Despite wide-ranging openings, the number of corona cases in Great Britain has fallen dramatically since "Freedom Day" on July 19. Experts, on the other hand, had feared that they could increase to up to 100,000 infected people daily. What are the reasons for the British Paradox? And to what extent can this be transferred to other countries?

A “Freedom Day” for all of Europe could be a rude awakening. Because compared to other European countries, the pandemic situation in Great Britain has some peculiarities.

The "pingdemie"

Like the authorities in other European countries, the British National Health Service has launched a corona warning app. It draws attention to a risk encounter with a loud ping (hence “Pingdemic”).

The number of alarms has increased in recent weeks - thousands of British people have been strongly advised to go into quarantine because of contact with infected people. Supermarket shelves could no longer be refilled because of many employees in quarantine, and there were no deliveries of goods. According to an evaluation by the British authorities, more than ten percent of the 16 to 29-year-olds had to be quarantined within a week.

Although younger Brits in particular have now annoyed the "pinging" app, according to a report by the newspaper "The Guardian", experts assume that the massive quarantine recommendations have contributed to lowering the number of infections.

It is also conceivable that the many alarms were a general topic of conversation and that people responded with more caution.

The EM effect

During the European Football Championship, people crowded the British stadiums with no distance or masks. There were also celebrations privately and in front of public viewing screens. As a result, the corona numbers in Great Britain rose rapidly.

According to the Scottish Health Authority, around 2000 new infections were caused by the game between England and Scotland - in Scotland alone. How many there were in England is unknown - but the number is likely to be significantly higher.

This effect was also confirmed by the fact that a disproportionately high number of young men became infected. This is shown by an evaluation in the Financial Times.

The EM has been over since July 11th - and this is probably one of the reasons why the number of new infections is falling.

The summer vacation effect

The British are also on summer vacation. As a result, the Delta virus no longer spreads in and over schools - these had a significant role in the infection process. This means that the regular tests in schools are currently no longer required, which is why some infections should go unnoticed and not be included in the statistics. So it might be less positive than it appears.

The summer vacation effect also affects employees who are currently on vacation. Their absence also dampens the infection process.

Many are already immune

Last, but not least, more than 90 percent of the adult British population have already developed antibodies against the virus - be it after infection or through vaccination. This has been announced by the Office of National Statistics (ONS). Even among the younger ones, many already have a certain immune protection: Of the 16 to 24 year olds it should be 80 percent - often due to an infection. However, experts still doubt whether real herd protection has been achieved.

Will the numbers rise again?

The numbers in Great Britain are now increasing again slightly. Experts do not rule out the possibility of them becoming threatening again - for example after the school holidays, when travelers return freshly infected from high-incidence areas such as Spain because people no longer hold back voluntarily or because at some point they increasingly ignore the many quarantine alarms.

But an optimistic scenario is also possible: that the power of the vaccinations ultimately breaks the chains of infection after all. In the UK and the rest of the world.

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