Corona: What does the increasing number of reproductions mean?
Christiane Fux studied journalism and psychology in Hamburg. The experienced medical editor has been writing magazine articles, news and factual texts on all conceivable health topics since 2001. In addition to her work for, Christiane Fux is also active in prose. Her first crime novel was published in 2012, and she also writes, designs and publishes her own crime plays.
More posts by Christiane Fux All content is checked by medical journalists.After various outbreaks, the reproductive number of coronavirus infections rose to 2.88. The goal was a value below 1. How critical is the situation?
The number of Sars-CoV-2 infections is increasing again in Germany. An affected person currently infects an average of two to three people. The Robert Koch Institute (RKI) issued a reproduction value of 2.88 on Sunday - the highest value since the nationwide pandemic restrictions were relaxed.
With the help of the contact restrictions, this value, which is important for the infection process, was successfully reduced to below 1 - and thus the pandemic contained. How alarming is the current number? And is Germany facing a new wave of infections?
Prevent a second wave
"A second wave can also come in Germany, but I am confident that we can prevent it," said RKI boss Lothar Wieler in a press conference on Tuesday morning.
A major difference to the situation two months ago is: The number of new infections is still relatively low overall. At that time it was almost 7,000 a day nationwide, it is currently around 500. But what is more important is that the majority of the infections occur in local hotspots - a building complex in Berlin, one in Magdeburg and, above all, the Tönnies meat processing company in Gütersloh with now over 1500 infected.
Has the virus spread unnoticed in the district?
It's the first major outbreak since the measures were eased. But it is hoped that such local hot sports can be limited through quarantines and consistent follow-up. However, it is unclear to what extent the infection has now spread unnoticed in the Gütersloh district outside of the meat factory.
“We don't know: is it a local outbreak or has it already been registered with the population?” Says Wieler. The upcoming holiday season could fuel the spread.
SPD health expert Karl Lauterbach, on the other hand, is already assuming a higher number of unreported cases in the rest of the population: "The size of the Tönnies outbreak shows that the problem has existed for several weeks," he wrote on Twitter. It is therefore unlikely that the infections were limited to the employees.
Lockdown in Gütersloh
Country father Armin Laschet ordered a new lockdown for the Gütersloh district after quarantine for Tönnies employees and school and daycare closings. The tightening of the contact restrictions to the level of March should remain in place at least until June 30th.
Meanwhile, virologists in the meat factory are trying to find out why the virus spread so rapidly there. In addition to the close quarters of the employees, who mainly come from abroad, the virus has ideal conditions here to spread, especially due to the cool temperatures in the meat processing department. The physically strenuous work is also suspected to have contributed to an increased excretion of the virus.
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