Corona crisis: the contact block works!

Christiane Fux studied journalism and psychology in Hamburg. The experienced medical editor has been writing magazine articles, news and factual texts on all conceivable health topics since 2001. In addition to her work for, Christiane Fux is also active in prose. Her first crime novel was published in 2012, and she also writes, designs and publishes her own crime plays.

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Scientists consider a cautious easing of the contact restrictions in the not too distant future to be conceivable. However, until then, people in Germany would have to continue to strictly adhere to the rules - otherwise all efforts would quickly be dashed again. Because the virus has not yet disappeared - it is spreading further - just more slowly. So the message is: stay tuned!

"Everyone has contributed"

Ray of hope in the Corona crisis: It is a day of encouraging news. Researchers at the Max Plank Institute in Göttingen certify that the measures to contain the coronavirus have the hoped-for effect. “Our society can be really proud that it has achieved this turning point,” said Viola Priesemann, who heads a research group at the Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization in Göttingen. Everyone has contributed to this.

No all-clear yet

In fact, the number of corona infections in Germany has increased significantly more slowly since last weekend and is expected to decrease in the next two weeks, the researchers predict. So the efforts have paid off. The scientists write that this is an encouraging development, but not yet the all-clear.

"We see very clearly: the number of cases in two weeks now depends on our behavior," said Priesemann. Social contacts would have to be kept to a minimum for at least ten days. "Then the new infections could be pushed back so far that we can then continue with caution, but hopefully with significantly fewer restrictions," said the scientist.

Careful loosening is "feasible"

The virologist Hendrik Streeck also believes that relaxation is feasible. The scientist and his team from the University of Bonn carried out a case study in the community of Gangelt in North Rhine-Westphalia, which was particularly affected by the coronavirus. There they interviewed and tested around 1000 people, which is a representative number for the small region.

Higher number of unreported cases than expected

The aim was to find out, among other things, how many people were actually infected and how many infections went undetected. In fact, the number of unreported cases of infected people in Gangelt was significantly higher than previously assumed: the researchers found antibodies in the blood of 15 percent of the population. That means they are immune, at least for now. They are already through the disease - many of them without knowing it. So far, a share of only 5 percent was assumed.

For the so-called herd immunity to take effect, in which so many people are immune that the disease no longer spreads significantly, it would have to be 60 percent of Germans.

One thing is clear: these numbers cannot be transferred to the country with its regionally very different infection rates. But they show that the disease goes undetected more often than assumed. In view of the exhaustion of the test capacities, the number of unreported cases will soon increase.

Lower death rate

Higher numbers of infected people also means that, at least in Gangelt, the proportion of deceased was significantly lower than calculated in part on the basis of the known number of cases. In Gangelt it is 0.37 percent. The data from Johns Hopkins University, which collects and evaluates corona case numbers worldwide, certify that Germany has a death rate of 1.98 percent.

The comparatively low mortality rate only applies if seriously ill patients can receive optimal medical care.

Entry into phase 2?

Because most people are “so active and disciplined”, it is now possible to enter “phase two”, said Streeck on Thursday when the case study was presented. It is important, however, that hygienic behavior continues to be observed. “We learned how to behave properly,” said Streeck.

Merkel urges caution and patience

Chancellor Merkel also urges patience. On the way back to normal, one can only proceed “very, very carefully and in small steps”, she said on Thursday. Otherwise one could quickly destroy what has been achieved. But there is cause for "cautious hope".

What does loosening actually mean?

But what a relaxation might actually look like is still completely open. The model calculation cannot answer which measures should be relaxed first. Because from school closings to canceled major events to shop and restaurant closings to contact restrictions, all factors work together.

Nobody can calculate the effects of shutting down one or more measures. "It is difficult enough to assess the effects of the packages of measures, not to mention the individual measures," said Viola Priesemann.

Decision only after Easter

Officially, top politicians do not want to decide on possible easing until the end of the Easter break. But individual representatives are already taking a stand on this.

"Nobody should believe that our old life can suddenly start again from April 20," said Lower Saxony's Prime Minister Stephan Weil on Thursday.

You can read more about the easing decisions that have been made in the article Corona: The most important decisions about easing.

Spahn: "Refrain from parties for a long time"

Health Minister Jens Spahn first has the business world in view for gradual easing: "A condition for returning to working life is that the factory or business can be organized safely for employees and customers," he told the Handelsblatt. Companies that adhere to hygiene measures are more likely to get started again. "But unfortunately we will be without parties of all kinds for a long time," said Spahn.

Loosen nationwide or regionally?

Politicians disagree on whether easing should take place nationwide or regionally.

Because, for example, we urge a uniform approach.There are very different situations in the individual federal states - for example, as far as the number of infections is concerned, said the SPD politician in the ZDF morning magazine.

Nevertheless, it would be very helpful if the countries “go in the same direction in the same direction so that there is no confusion”. Different regulations, for example when schools are open, might not be the goal.

"Local solutions"

Others see it very differently: Where this is justified by the overall situation, "normal life" can in principle be made possible again, demanded, for example, the former local law expert in the Schwerin Ministry of the Interior, Thomas Darsow. The situation and conditions are very different nationwide.

“So the freedom of the federal structure should also be used to find solutions that are appropriate to the location,” he explained to the “Schweriner Volkszeitung”. That would mean that some children may go to school in neighboring towns, but others do not.

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