Demographics - aging population

Ingrid Müller is a chemist and medical journalist. She was editor-in-chief of for twelve years. Since March 2014 she has been working as a freelance journalist and author for, among others, Focus Gesundheit, the health portal ellviva.de, the publishing house living crossmedia and the health channel of rtv.de.

More about the experts All content is checked by medical journalists.

Germany is shrinking ...

The German population is shrinking and aging. Today, almost 82 million people still live in Germany, in 2060 there will be only 65 to 70 million, predicts the Federal Statistical Office in a report. The reasons for the population decline are the decline in birth rates and the increase in deaths. According to the assessment, the birth deficit could no longer be compensated for by increased immigration from abroad. Even increasing life expectancy and a higher number of children per woman could not prevent the population decline. The experts estimate that the decline can no longer be stopped.

... and ages

But there will not only be fewer children, but more and more older people who will also live longer. In 2060 everyone will be
Third (34 percent) have lived through at least 65 years of age and there will be twice as many 70-year-olds living as children are born.

Aging is particularly reflected in the numbers of the very old. According to the population projections of the Federal Statistical Office, the number of people in Germany who are 80 years of age or older will increase from 4.3 million to 10.2 million between 2011 and 2050. Fifty years from now, around 14 percent of the population - that is one in seven - will be 80 years or older.

Care - the statistics

What does this mean for the future care situation in Germany? Demographic change will lead to a shortage of nursing staff: In 2025 there will be a shortage of 152,000 employees in nursing professions to look after those in need of care, according to model calculations by the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) and the Federal Institute for Vocational Education and Training (BIBB).

The nursing statistics from the Federal Statistical Office also provide answers.

• There were almost 2.5 million people in need of care in 2011 - that was four percent more than in 2009.
• The majority (65 percent) were women.
• 83 percent of those in need of care were 65 years of age or older; 35 percent were older than 85 years.
• More than two thirds of those in need of care are cared for at home (outpatient) (69 percent or 1.62 million). Most were cared for by relatives alone.
• Full inpatient long-term care in nursing homes received a total of 743,000 people in need of care. The number of full inpatient permanent care increased by 3.6 percent compared to 2009.

Old age is risky

With increasing age, the risk of being in need of care increases. While among the 70 to under 75 year olds “only” one in twenty (5 percent) was in need of care, the rate for those aged 90 and over is 60 percent.

It is interesting that women from the age of 80 are more in need of care than men of this age. An example: For women who are 90 years of age and older, the care quota (proportion of people in need of care out of all people in this age group) is 68 percent, for men of the same age only 37 percent are in need of care. An elderly woman is therefore at a higher risk of becoming a nurse than a senior citizen.

Healthy or sick?

If the population continues to age, the number of people in need of care will also rise in the next few years - because the risk increases with age. Figures from the Federal Statistical Office assume the following scenario: From 2.3 million today, the number will increase to 2.8 million in 2020. That's an increase of about 39 percent from 2001 to 2020.

At the same time, according to the calculations, the proportion of people in need of care in the total population will increase - to 3.4 percent in 2020. However, these are only cautious estimates by the Federal Statistical Office.

However, the number of people in need of care does not have to increase proportionally with the increase in older people in the total population. Possible changes in health and the question of whether the years of life gained will be spent in health or illness are also important. Medical progress also plays a role in this. The increase in life expectancy can also be linked to better health.

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