Outbreak of flu - every year

Luise Heine has been an editor at since 2012. The qualified biologist studied in Regensburg and Brisbane (Australia) and gained experience as a journalist in television, in the Ratgeber-Verlag and in a print magazine. In addition to her work at , she also writes for children, for example for the Stuttgarter Kinderzeitung, and has her own breakfast blog, “Kuchen zum Frühstück”.

More posts by Luise Heine All content is checked by medical journalists.

"The flu is coming" - it almost sounds like a battle cry, which goes through the media every autumn. Rightly so, because the flu and the complications it causes are no joke.
 

7.7 million doctor visits, 3.4 million sick leave and over 32,000 flu-related hospital admissions were triggered by influenza in the last flu season of 2012/2013 alone. Compared to previous years, however, the last year is also considered to be a particularly strong flu year. And what is in store for us this time?

Influenza season unpredictable

It's not just the media who keep an eye on the flu - the influenza experts in particular have rolled out a close-knit monitoring network. Usually the flu spreads in waves. It usually starts in the southwest of Europe, i.e. in Spain and Portugal, and then continues its way via Central Europe - including Germany - to Eastern Europe.

This year, however, the flu viruses are not yet particularly active: the weekly report by the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) reports no increased incidence of respiratory diseases for any of the German federal states. The numbers for this year's week 46 are at the same low level as in the comparable period last year and are still under “background activity”. But that can change quickly. Because for the course of the flu season, there are at best rough models that are related to the weather - influenza viruses love it cool and dry. How the wave will actually run cannot be predicted. The various flu pathogens always have surprises in store.

Viruses are always ahead of researchers

By changing its genetic information (mutation), the virus changes certain structures on its surface every year, the so-called antigens. However, it is these antigens that the vaccines target - and the human immune system reacts. That is why researchers around the world observe with eagle eyes how the viruses change and how well the current vaccination works against them.

This results in a forecast of the expected subtypes - the basis for vaccine development in the coming year. There is a constant arms race between researchers and viruses, in which the pathogens always have a small lead. The one vaccination that helps against all existing and future flu virus types and thus to break the seasonal occurrence of the disease does not yet exist. However, the researchers are always trying to find new approaches that should make a "universal vaccination" possible.

Vaccination from October

After all, the researchers in the northern hemisphere usually have the summer to provide the appropriate amounts of vaccine for the autumn flu wave. Because it is only in the cold season of the year that the number of illnesses usually increases by leaps and bounds. Particularly vulnerable groups of people such as the elderly, pregnant women or people with certain general illnesses are recommended to be vaccinated from October for the current flu season.

Anyone can report the flu

Infected or not? Not all those affected feel immediately that they have caught the flu or simply present themselves to their doctor with "fever and cough". He then reports a confirmed flu to the Robert Koch Institute.

In order to get an even faster picture of the flu dynamics in the future, the RKI launched the "GrippeWeb" in 2011. Anyone who wants to take part can register on the website and will then be asked about their state of health once a week. If acute respiratory illnesses are also reported here, this is included in the assessment of the current flu situation. Models like the ones used by Google are also interesting - the company assumes that people who are sick google for "flu" or "cold" particularly often. Based on the evaluation of the search terms, the search engine then creates its very own flu atlas, which in some cases can even give flu warnings faster than the official bodies are able to. Because there the numbers only come together when the disease is clinically confirmed. With Google, however, it is also recorded when the first restrained cough announces the approach of a possible flu.

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