Corona: How high is the number of unreported cases?

Christiane Fux studied journalism and psychology in Hamburg. The experienced medical editor has been writing magazine articles, news and factual texts on all conceivable health topics since 2001. In addition to her work for, Christiane Fux is also active in prose. Her first crime novel was published in 2012, and she also writes, designs and publishes her own crime plays.

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The official figures are deceiving: In Germany tens of thousands of people may have been infected. What does this mean for dealing with the virus?

The Robert Koch Institute (RKI) announces the new figures on the coronavirus epidemic every day. As of today (Tuesday) there are almost 8,200 in Germany, 12 have died. In fact, there are more - much more.

The official case numbers are deceiving

“8200 out of 82 million? Not that many ”, many people will think and wonder whether the restrictions imposed are a little exaggerated. But the fact is: the real number of those infected is many times higher. As with an iceberg, most of which is below the surface of the water, with Covid-19 the documented cases of illness are only the visible tip.

So there are significantly more infected people than have actually been proven and documented. Experts estimate this total number of all infections with the so-called dark figure.

Unnoticed infections encourage the spread

Covid-19 runs unnoticed to mild in around four out of five infected people. And inconspicuous cases are currently only tested in Germany if there is a specific reason for suspicion. But that has mostly already been lost in the long chain of infections.

The RKI justified its upgrade of the corona risk, among other things, with the fact that there are more and more confirmed infections that can no longer be traced back to known cases.

One in six infected people went undetected

A team of British, US and Chinese researchers has calculated that for every infected person identified in China there were six unrecognized people - at the beginning of the epidemic there were even more. However, two thirds of the infections originated from precisely these undetected virus carriers, according to the research team's calculations.

These figures cannot simply be transferred to Germany. How high the number of unreported cases is in a country also depends on how rigorously testing is carried out. In view of the very high mortality rate of 7.2 percent in Italy, it is assumed that the number of unreported cases is very high there. Much higher than in Germany, where the proportion of deceased among the known infected is currently only a very low 0.2 percent.

Unreported 100,000?

How many unsuspecting infected people stroll through the streets in this country is difficult to estimate. However, experts consider it realistic that 100,000 people in Germany could have been infected - ten times more than officially known. Some even consider an even higher number of unreported cases to be conceivable.

The problem: Even those who feel healthy themselves can infect others. If the estimates are correct and if this chain reaction is not slowed down, we could quickly exceed the million mark.

Avoiding this is precisely the reason for the strict measures prescribed. They are intended to reduce social contacts and curb the rapid spread. Because not only the number of known cases is currently doubling every three days, but also the much larger number of undetected infected people.

Turn things around

The good news is that things could still be turned around. The effect of the current measures will be seen in a few days. Since it takes an average of six days for the disease to break out, the numbers will continue to rise at the same pace for the time being until the measures show a possible braking effect.

“Corona parties”, self-organized playgroups and other get-togethers can, however, torpedo efforts. The Robert Koch Institute is already warning of a scenario with ten million coronavirus infections in a few months in Germany if the protective measures ordered are not adhered to.

If reason does not prevail very quickly, the only remaining emergency brake is curfews like in Italy, France or Belgium.

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