Now the mutants are taking over

Christiane Fux studied journalism and psychology in Hamburg. The experienced medical editor has been writing magazine articles, news and factual texts on all conceivable health topics since 2001. In addition to her work for, Christiane Fux is also active in prose. Her first crime novel was published in 2012, and she also writes, designs and publishes her own crime plays.

More posts by Christiane Fux All content is checked by medical journalists.

The virus mutations are spreading inexorably in Germany. That means: the numbers are threatening to rise again instead of falling. What to do?

Actually, everything looked pretty good: The lockdown was finally having an effect, the incidence was falling steadily, and easing seemed within reach.

But now the situation is tipping over again: Since the virus mutations have reached Germany, they have been spreading relentlessly. About every 14 days the proportion of mutants among the detected infections doubles.

A week ago it was already 22 percent. Next week it should be 40 percent. The mutants take over - inevitably. At the moment it is mainly the British variant (B.1.1.7) that is gaining ground. But the South African virus variant is already circulating.

Viruses with greater power to spread

There are two possible explanations for the fact that the viruses dominate the infection process so quickly: They are significantly more contagious than the original virus. Or they are contagious over a long period of time.

In any case, if there are no measures taken, an infected person does not infect two or three people, as is the case with the wild type, but three to four people. That means: In order to keep the numbers stable, the contacts would have to be restricted more than before.

The reproductive value R is already higher than 1 on most days. And the number of new infections is increasing again in some cases instead of decreasing as before. Nevertheless, it will now be relaxed. Schools and daycare centers in particular are reopening in many places.

Before the third wave

The threat of a third wave was evident in countries such as Portugal and Great Britain: The combination of the predominance of mutants and easing has caused the number of infections to explode in a short time.

It is true that vaccinations have the power to eliminate these virus variants as well: Observations from countries such as Great Britain and Israel show that vaccinations reduce the incidence of infections as soon as a larger part of the population is vaccinated (in Israel, for example, more than 50 percent of the population). But Germany is miles away from that.

Tests as a breakwater

What remains is to rely on the effect of the rapid test. If significantly more pre-symptomatic or symptom-free infections can be detected in this way, many infections can be prevented. Tests should be carried out regularly in schools and kindergartens.

If everyone who puts themselves in a higher risk situation tests themselves or has themselves tested, they won't become an unsuspecting super spreader either. This would make sense, for example, before traveling by train, visiting the hairdresser, and later also before going to a restaurant, cinema or club.

It is crucial that the self-tests are affordable and widely available. Then the infection numbers could actually remain manageable up to herd immunity, despite loosening and mutants.

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