No bankruptcy explosion due to the coronavirus?

Carola Felchner is a freelance writer in the medical department and a certified training and nutrition advisor. She worked for various specialist magazines and online portals before becoming a freelance journalist in 2015. Before starting her internship, she studied translation and interpreting in Kempten and Munich.

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So far, the pandemic has not resulted in more bankruptcy filings. But at the moment that is neither surprising nor an unreservedly positive sign.

The emergency braking for the economy due to the corona pandemic has not yet allowed the number of company bankruptcies in Germany to explode. According to preliminary information from the Federal Statistical Office, the number of standard insolvency proceedings opened in March 2020 increased by 1.6 percent compared to the same month last year. In April, on the other hand, the number of proceedings opened fell significantly by 13.4 percent, the Wiesbaden authority announced on Monday.

"The economic crisis caused by the corona pandemic and the measures taken to contain it is therefore not reflected in an increase in the number of insolvency proceedings opened in March and April," explained the statisticians. However, this is not surprising at the moment: the legislature has temporarily exempted companies that have become insolvent due to the Corona crisis from the obligation to file for bankruptcy. In addition, the processing of applications in some courts can currently take longer because operations there are also limited in some cases.

There are still reserves

The statisticians do not expect that the official figures, which the Federal Office publishes about two months later, will differ significantly from the estimate. According to the Federal Office, more than half of the standard insolvency proceedings are corporate bankruptcies.

According to data from the Leibniz Institute for Economic Research Halle (IWH), partnerships and corporations in Germany filed for bankruptcy in March and April 1936 - and thus just as many as in the same period of the previous year. IWH expert Steffen Müller announced last week that this was not a reason to give the all-clear: "On the one hand, many companies have reserves and do not immediately file for bankruptcy when a crisis breaks out. On the other hand, government measures may have helped, at least a wave of bankruptcies postpone. "

Strong increase to be expected

The credit insurer Euler Hermes expects the numbers to rise sharply. According to an analysis by the Allianz subsidiary, bankruptcies worldwide are likely to rise by 20 percent this year. The main drivers are the USA with an increase of 25 percent and Europe with 19 percent more bankruptcies. For Germany, Euler Hermes expects at least ten percent more bankruptcies than in the previous year.

The German companies would be stabilized by the state aid, said the Germany boss of Euler Hermes, Ron van het Hof. "The flip side of this coin, however, is that the debt burden for many companies will be significantly greater than before." The mountain of debt must also be reduced again. In the euro area there are already an estimated 13,000 "zombie companies" that could only survive thanks to the low interest rates. "But Corona could make things tight for many," said van het Hof. (caf / dpa)

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