Coronavirus: is the second wave coming?

Lisa Vogel studied departmental journalism with a focus on medicine and biosciences at Ansbach University and deepened her journalistic knowledge in the master's degree in multimedia information and communication. This was followed by a traineeship in the editorial team. Since September 2020 she has been writing as a freelance journalist for

More posts by Lisa Vogel All content is checked by medical journalists.

The number of corona infections is rising again - and with them the fear of a second wave of infections. But is a second wave really coming our way?

It's summer and people are rushing outside. They meet at lakes, in parks and green spaces, in shopping streets or to celebrate together. People strive for normality. Distance and hygiene are quickly forgotten. And this at a time when the number of infections is rising again in more and more places.

But it was precisely thanks to the rapid and extensive infection protection measures and the participation of the population that it was possible to flatten the first Covid-19 wave in Germany. But that does not mean that the pandemic is over.

New infections rise again

In the night from Tuesday to Wednesday, the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) reported 206,926 coronavirus infections in Germany. That is 684 more than the day before. For comparison: on June 14, the number of new infections was still 213.

The seven-day average of new infections has also risen again in the past few weeks. With this value, the trend in new infections can be displayed regardless of fluctuations over the course of a week. In mid-June there was an average of 315 new infections a day. In the past seven days, however, an average of 575 people per day were infected.

Just a few weeks ago, according to the RKI's management report, almost 150 districts did not report any new cases. This Monday there were only 88 counties without new infections. A development that the RKI finds “very worrying”. "A further worsening of the situation must be avoided at all costs," writes the institute in a press release.

Local hotspots

Due to the increasing number of cases, the Saxon Prime Minister Michael Kretschmer is already speaking of a “second wave”. A term that scares many citizens. But is the second wave really a reality?

Epidemiologists who deal with the spread of infections on a daily basis do not see it that way: They do not yet see the current infection situation as a second wave of disease. The increasing numbers are recently due to local infection events such as in Vechta on a poultry slaughterhouse. Or in Bavaria, where 174 infected harvest workers made headlines in the Bavarian district of Dingolfing-Landau.

The mathematician Thomas Hotz speaks out against tagesschau.de against a “second wave”. As an expert in probability theory and mathematical statistics, he conducts research at the Technical University of Ilmenau and, with his team, publishes calculations on the R-value - the reproduction number. "The health authorities have the situation under control," he says; there is currently no so-called second wave.

However, there are now more and more smaller events in various counties, emphasizes the RKI. For example, they would occur at family celebrations, religious gatherings, workplaces, or health and community facilities.

A lack of immunity carries the risk of infection

The vast majority of the population has no immune protection against the coronavirus. And even if someone has had an infection, it is not yet clear to what extent they are protected from re-infection. The number of cases could therefore continue to rise - and justify the use of the term “second wave”.

Whether there will be a second wave of infections depends on various factors. This includes:

• possible seasonal effects
• Compliance with infection control measures
• Mobility of the population
• Rapid identification of infections and contact persons (breaking infection chains)

Risk of returning travelers?

The loosening of the contact and travel restrictions also increases the risk of contracting the virus abroad. The RKI therefore continuously updates a list with the current risk areas. In these risk areas, the risk of contracting the coronavirus is particularly high - and bringing it with you when you return to Germany.

Anyone traveling to a risk area must expect a 14-day quarantine after returning to Germany. A medical certificate stating that the person concerned is not infected with Sars-CoV-2 at the time of entry can prevent the quarantine after the trip. The test must have been carried out a maximum of 48 hours before entry.

If no test was carried out before entering Germany, it is also possible to be tested after entering Germany. Holidaymakers can now have themselves tested for the corona virus on arrival at many German airports. If the result is negative, the person concerned does not have to be in quarantine. The federal government is currently discussing compulsory testing for all people entering Germany from a risk area. It is still unclear when and whether the mandatory test will be enforced.

Protective measures even on vacation

Local infections, as they now occur more frequently in Germany, also exist in countries that have not (yet) been declared risk areas: For example, Spain recently reported increasing numbers of infections in the regions of Catalonia, Navarra and Aragón. The Foreign Office therefore advises against traveling there (houseofgoldhealthproducts.de reported). Another current focus of infection outside the official risk areas: St. Wolfgang in Austria. Especially in places with a high number of infections, protective measures are also essential for holidaymakers.

No horror scenarios expected

Even if the number of infections should soar again, the situation does not necessarily have to look as critical as it was six months ago. Much more is now known about the coronavirus. The treatment of Covid-19 in German hospitals has meanwhile established itself.

Stefan Kluge, head of the department for intensive care medicine at the University Medical Center Eppendorf (UKE) in Hamburg, referred to the "Zeit" at the end of June that the treatment of patients had made great progress. A renewed shortage of disinfectants or mouth and nose masks is also unlikely.

"Don't rest on success"

Although many have got used to the mask, distance and hygiene, the still low number of cases of infection could lead to carelessness. The head of the RKI Lothar Wieler therefore warns against careless behavior. "It is up to us how the pandemic will spread in Germany." To celebrate now to thousands of wild parties, is inconsiderate and also negligent, he says to the “Spiegel”.

Whether a second wave breaks out in Germany depends on the individual behavior of each individual. The AHA rule (keep your distance, hygiene measures, everyday masks) still applies - even outdoors. And it will continue to be an important guideline for everyday life in order to contain the spread of corona and thus an actual second wave.

Tags:  skin care alcohol drugs parasites