Contact restriction: effect will only show in weeks

Christiane Fux studied journalism and psychology in Hamburg. The experienced medical editor has been writing magazine articles, news and factual texts on all conceivable health topics since 2001. In addition to her work for, Christiane Fux is also active in prose. Her first crime novel was published in 2012, and she also writes, designs and publishes her own crime plays.

More posts by Christiane Fux All content is checked by medical journalists.

Everywhere in Germany there are now strict rules that severely restrict interpersonal contact. This is the only adjustment screw for containing the epidemic that every single citizen can turn. Read here why it could take weeks before the full effect can be seen and why everyone has to stick with it now.

Some take the measures particularly hard. Individual occupational groups are losing their livelihood. People without families, without partners, without roommates are suddenly largely cut off from personal social contacts.

When such privations are demanded, you want to see success - and as quickly as possible. But that can take a while.

Numbers lag behind reality

Various factors contribute to the fact that the case numbers lag significantly behind the actual infection situation. Because the data that are now being published largely come from infected people who were infected days to weeks earlier.

Incubation time distortion factor

After infection, patients fall ill within five days on average. However, it can also take up to 14 days for the disease to break out. The measures to contain the epidemic can therefore be assessed at the earliest after this period of time.

Slight gradients are not recorded

Since 80 percent of those infected have only mild symptoms or no symptoms at all, they are not tested - and therefore not recognized. So you are flying under the radar of statisticians. This unreported number distorts the picture of the extent of the epidemic in terms of the number of cases and mortality - but also in terms of the impact of measures.

More tests

More tests are now being carried out. This increases the number of cases, regardless of the actual spread of the epidemic. What is more, it is now preferred to test severely ill patients. This means that more and more patients are recorded who have actually become infected.

Delayed case reports

In addition, the reporting offices have to deal with a rapidly increasing number of cases. This delays the flow of reporting data and their evaluation by the Robert Koch Institute (RKI). This makes it even more difficult to assess the spread.

Patience is required!

According to experts, it could take at least one to two weeks - or even longer - until the effectiveness of the measures taken becomes apparent. Until then, it could look as if the restrictions are of little use - or even nothing.

However, developments in some Asian countries that were affected by the coronavirus pandemic at an early stage show that compliance with the measures can be successful. The prerequisite is that they are implemented consistently.

The good news is: According to observations, a large part of the population seems to heed the massive restrictions in Germany. Now everyone is hoping that this will pay off: the more consistently they are lived, the faster and better the measures could work - and the quicker they could be gradually relaxed.

Conversely, however, the following also applies: If too many people fail to adhere to the guidelines, it is impossible to assess how well the measures could work in the best case. And they would probably not grip well enough. In that case, they would probably be tightened even further.