November lockdown: why we need to act now

Christiane Fux studied journalism and psychology in Hamburg. The experienced medical editor has been writing magazine articles, news and factual texts on all conceivable health topics since 2001. In addition to her work for, Christiane Fux is also active in prose. Her first crime novel was published in 2012, and she also writes, designs and publishes her own crime plays.

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The second wave of the pandemic has also reached Germany: With more than 16,000 new infections, the daily number of corona cases is higher than ever. A temporary lockdown should make the spread of the virus controllable again from November 2nd. Which measures apply? Why is it necessary to act so quickly? And what do the critics of the strategy say?

At their corona crisis talks on Wednesday, the federal and state governments agreed on temporary massive restrictions on public life. Chancellor Angela Merkel (CDU) spoke of an "acute national health emergency".

Nationwide closings of restaurants and leisure facilities are part of the package of measures. There are also strict contact restrictions: only members of two households should still be allowed to meet. However, unlike in spring, shops as well as schools and daycare centers should remain open (details on the measures can be found here).

Drosten: "Protection against overloads"

The discussion on the temporary lockdown was initiated by Charité virologist Christian Drosten, who referred to appropriate measures in parts of Great Britain.

Such a lockdown works like a safety switch that protects against overloads, according to Drosten. The scientist compares the situation in the NDR podcast "The Coronavirus Update" with a truck on a sloping road. The rapidly accelerated journey could be slowed down with several short brakes or - if done in good time - with a single brake.

Avoid situation like in France

Otherwise we could soon find ourselves in a situation that our European neighbors are already in. The virologist had already pointed out in mid-September that "if we superimpose the curves, we will lag a little behind Spain and France and England."

A short-term lockdown could significantly reduce the number of cases. "In this way, we can possibly make up ground in the long term, for example re-establishing case tracking via the health authorities." At a certain point, there would otherwise only be a hard lockdown, which would cause much more damage, according to the virologist. You cannot negotiate with the virus.

Health authorities already at the limit

One thing is certain: time is of the essence. The number of reported new infections is already so high in many places that the test results are only available with a delay. In addition, the health authorities can no longer keep up with the contact follow-up.

Contact persons are therefore more often only warned after they have already passed the virus on. This also stimulates the infection process. 75 percent of the sources of infection can currently no longer be found.

The situation in hospitals is coming to a head

The number of intensive care patients is already increasing noticeably again, somewhat delayed from the infection process - and at some point possibly to values ​​that significantly exceed those from the spring.

Unlike then, there are now more intensive care beds and ventilators available - but there is a lack of trained nursing staff. If it is withdrawn from other wards, there is also a risk of medical bottlenecks that actually have nothing to do with Covid-19.

Against this background, Health Minister Jens Spahn warned of bottlenecks in hospitals. "If we wait until the intensive care units are full, it will be too late," he tells the SWR. In other European countries, the hospitals are already at their limit again and requests for help are coming back.

Resolute votes against from virologists and doctors

But there are other voices too. Scientists such as the virologists Hendrick Streek from Bonn and Jonas Schmidt-Chanasit from the Bernhard Nocht Institute in Hamburg, together with doctors from various specialist societies, have published a position paper that strikes a different note.

They compare the pandemic to a marathon. Short-term sprints such as the four-week nationwide lockdown that begins on Monday would not help in the long term.

"A blanket lockdown regulation is neither expedient nor implementable," said the head of the National Association of Statutory Health Insurance Physicians (KBV), Andreas Gassen. One could not put the whole country "weeks and months in a kind of artificial coma", also in view of permanent damage to society, culture and economy.

The signatories call for targeted containment measures. Instead of pursuing the already collapsing strategy of tracking all individual contacts, priority should be given to cases relating to medical and nursing facilities or events with many infected people.

Rely on cooperation instead of bans

The cooperation of the population is essential for success. But education and commandments are much more promising than stirring up fear and issuing bans.

Schmidt-Chanasit emphasized that the protective rules with a distance, hygiene, masks and corona warning app are basically sufficient - but must be implemented consistently. This needs to be better explained, for example to people who do not speak German well. It is right to reduce risk contacts. But many would take place at home, less so in hotels.

In addition, the protection of risk groups must be central - and not only those affected who live in homes. Possibilities are the organization of neighborhood help for errands for everyone who wants to isolate themselves, possibilities for quick tests for visitors and the distribution of FFP-2 masks.

Protecting risk groups - is that even possible?

The proposal means, however, that the elderly and members of other risk groups would only have the choice between strict precautionary measures and social withdrawal on the one hand and a high risk of infection on the other.

The group of over 65s alone makes up more than 20 percent of society. Some, for example the chronically ill, do not even have this choice, for example because they work or live with families. Many of them voluntarily or involuntarily choose the risk rather than months of withdrawal, the dreaded collapse of the health system threatens again.

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