Swine flu 2.0: warning of the next pandemic
Christiane Fux studied journalism and psychology in Hamburg. The experienced medical editor has been writing magazine articles, news and factual texts on all conceivable health topics since 2001. In addition to her work for, Christiane Fux is also active in prose. Her first crime novel was published in 2012, and she also writes, designs and publishes her own crime plays.
More posts by Christiane Fux All content is checked by medical journalists.A virus is rampant in China's pig farms, which Chinese scientists believe has pandemic potential: swine flu virus, variant G4. It is a mutation of the swine flu virus H1N1, which from 2009 pandemically spread around the globe.
Unlike the current Sars-CoV-2 pandemic virus, the swine flu virus of that time turned out to be less fatal than initially feared, although it claimed around 18,000 deaths worldwide. What does the appearance of the new virus variant mean?
Facts that are known so far
Studies in pig farms in various Chinese provinces have shown that a new variant, H1N1, has been predominant among the animals since 2016. Your designation: G4 EA H1N1. What actually seems worrying is that the virus can spread to humans.
The researchers found antibodies to the pathogen in the blood of around one in ten of 338 employed workers examined. So far, the researchers have not been able to observe any severe disease progression.
So far no known spread from person to person
More importantly, it has not yet been proven that the virus can be passed on not only from pigs to humans, but also from human to human. Only then can a pandemic develop. However, there seems to be evidence that the virus is increasingly adapting to humans.
Pig fattening as a breeding ground for pandemics
"Pigs are ideal intermediate hosts for the development of a pandemic influenza virus," the researchers write. Viruses from humans and birds can meet in them. The exchange of genetic material could therefore easily give rise to new types of virus there.
"Therefore, the systematic surveillance of influenza viruses in pigs is a key measure in order to detect the occurrence of the next pandemic influenza in advance," the researchers write.
Vaccination easier to develop
Another decisive difference to the current Sars-CoV-2 pandemic: It is a flu virus. Developing a specific vaccine for this is comparatively unproblematic. A challenge - also time-consuming - would, however, be production for the global population.
Potential threat
What is unfavorable, however, is that a large proportion of the workers in the pig fattening farms have become infected. That means: G4 can not only jump over to humans, it also seems very contagious: "It is worrying that pig workers have an increased seroprevalence for the G4 virus", write the scientists.
Another problem is that flu viruses mutate faster than the Sars-CoV-2 virus, which is currently paralyzing the world. The Chinese researchers therefore recommend following developments closely.
Stay vigilant!
"Combating the prevalent G4 EA H1N1 virus in pigs and closely monitoring human populations, particularly workers in the pig industry, should be implemented as a matter of urgency," said the researchers. Should the virus ever be able to pass from person to person, this must be recognized quickly and then acted on quickly.
