Loosening up is not an option
Christiane Fux studied journalism and psychology in Hamburg. The experienced medical editor has been writing magazine articles, news and factual texts on all conceivable health topics since 2001. In addition to her work for, Christiane Fux is also active in prose. Her first crime novel was published in 2012, and she also writes, designs and publishes her own crime plays.
More posts by Christiane Fux All content is checked by medical journalists.The numbers are finally falling, vaccinations are finally taking place - but delivery bottlenecks and mutations are putting a thick line on our easing calculation. A comment.
There is reason to be happy: For the first time since October, the value of the weekly new corona infections in Germany has fallen to below 100 per 100,000 inhabitants. This is very good news - and right now we can really use it again. Otherwise there will be “bad news” again.
The euphoria of vaccine approval is followed by sobering reports of supply problems. Above all, there are the darned mutations that may be so contagious that you can't vaccinate them fast enough.
Where the mutants cavort
In Munich they are already romping around, the mutant B.1.1.7, which spilled over from Great Britain, followed by the South African relatives (B.1.351). From 0.2 percent (December 28), their share of the samples tested positive has risen to 7 percent in just four weeks. Berlin reports the largest clusters to date. And the two reproductive variants have also been identified in Baden-Württemberg and North Rhine-Westphalia. Nobody knows whether one or the other Brazilian offshoot is already under the radar somewhere in Germany.
Higher contagion, longer lockdown
Despite the falling number of cases, it seems more than daring to loosen the lockdown soon. The possible 35 percent higher contagiousness of the British virus alone would mean that the R-value could rise from the current 0.87 to just under 1.2 - despite the measures in place! And what that means in the short to medium term, we have learned in the last few months: increasing numbers, more deaths.
The fact that the flight connections at least from Great Britain, Ireland, South Africa, Portugal and Brazil are to be cut largely still makes sense, but a bit late. The mutations are here long ago. Even if Mr. Dorsten is still hoping to curb it, the chances decrease with every cluster that pops up. Especially since many health authorities still have to act by fax instead of digitally.
Will the next mutant come from Germany?
And there is another good reason not to give up now: High infection rates - no matter where in the world - play the virus in the spike proteins. Whenever the pathogen divides, mutations can arise. Most make no difference. Many are actually detrimental to the virus. A few, however, are making it more successful - and then they will prevail - apparently rapidly at the moment.
The next "variant of concern" - as scientists call the "worrying" mutants - could therefore come from Germany at any time. And the more actively the virus is circulating in this country, the more likely it is. How quickly it will tip can be seen in Portugal: from pandemic class leader to the hottest hotspot in a few weeks.
It is frustrating. It's depressing. And that the famous light at the end of the tunnel now seems so dimmed again is truly bitter. But closing your eyes doesn't help - stick with it. Loosening up, on the other hand, is currently not an option.
